State of the GPU market for Q3 2017; miners and gamers putting a smile on manufacturers faces

Subject: Graphics Cards | November 20, 2017 - 06:57 PM |
Tagged: jon peddie, q3 2017

The latest results from Jon Peddie Research are out and it looks like it has been a good quarter for discrete GPU vendors, not so much for APUs however.  When JPR looks at the graphics market, they include all silicon with graphics capabilities, discrete GPUs, APUs and IGPs giving a broad overview of the current state of the market.

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It seems the market shares of Matrox and S3 have finally disappeared into the noise, leaving only Intel, AMD and NVIDIA represented in the breakdown of global GPU market share.  In all cases the total amount of sales have gone up, which fits in with seasonal patterns and demonstrates that while the PC market may be wounded, it is far from dead.  Intel's total GPU sales increased by 5% from last quarter, which translated to a loss of 3.2% of total market share.  AMD saw a total increase of 7.6%, their desktop GPUs alone increased by 16.1%, however that was only enough to keep them at the same ~13% of the global GPU market.  NVIDIA saw the biggest increase, a 29.5% jump in sales, which gives them just under 20% of the GPU market to call their own.

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A very interesting data point from JPR's latest report shows how the overall PC market has changed over time.  We have never recovered from the highs of the end of 2010, for a wide variety of reasons ranging from the long term impact of the global recession to a certain company's decision to switch from a lively two step to a stately waltz.  The market is signs that the long decline we have seen may be slowing, instead of dropping by several million units during the traditionally sluggish beginning of the year it only dropped by about one million units.  Consider the lack of driving reasons to do a complete upgrade of a computer this year until AMD's Ryzen and Threadripper appeared, it is quite possible we may see sales steady or perhaps even rise over 2018.

We won't know for a while yet, but the signs are more encouraging than they have been in a long time.

 


November 20, 2017 | 08:55 PM - Posted by DifferentBreakDownDrPeddieSVP (not verified)

"not so much for APUs however", Really with AMD APUs with Vega graphics just now available and Nvidia has those professional GV100 market sales to help push the numbers higher with Automotive sales also for Nvidia not affected by the overall PC market decline.

The big question is how will Jon Peddie Research count those Intel/AMD Radeon Polaris based sales as the Intel EMBI/MCM module can not be considered an AMD based integrated GPU and on those EMIB/MCM based units the Intel SOC SKU will still have its Intel integrated graphics in addition to the Radeon discrete semi-custom die on the EMIB/MCM. So for each one of those SKUs used that will represent one Intel Integrated GPU sale and also one AMD discrete semi-custom die sale.

The entire GPU market is skewed towards Integrated Graphics on Intel's side owing to the fact that most laptops and some PCs get the Intel integrated graphics even if the end users only want the Intel parts for the CPU cores and those users instead want the discrete GPUs from Nvidia or AMD to game on, or do heavy non gaming Graphics workloads on.

I'd rather see the breakdown on integrated graphics in a seperate graph from discrete GPUs and even Nvidia has gaming console sales and automotive sales that use integrated graphics. Also I'd rather have the consumer market for any form of GPU on a different chart than any enterprise/HPC/Workstation GPUs or embedded, automotive, medical equipment, slot machine, ad display/other SOC/APUs that are clearly not consumer related.

Nvidia's GPU growth is probably more related to the professional markets(AI growth mostly) and the entire consumer PC/Laptop market has no real new growth potential ccmpared to the Enterprise HPC/Workstation/Server and AI markets. AMD's growth potential for its professional GPUs will also be buoyed up along with AMDs' rising Epyc CPU tide that has also just started to see some HPE related Epyc design win news along with other systems like that Project 47 supercomputer in a single cabinet that uses 20, 32 core Epyc CPUs/MBs each holding 4, Vega 10 die based Radeon Instinct MI25 GPU SKUs(80 total MI25's) for AI/Infrencing workloads.

This overly broad graph can not show any specific market trends and the Professional AI markets are just one of the new uses for those AI focused 16/8 bit math units with any 32 bit GPU FP units that can do 16 bit packed math(2 16 bit results from one 32 bit FP unit) included for AI workloads.
Nvidia has included TPUs on GV100 so that's Tensor Processing Units/Tensor cores along with the usual shader cores for GV100.

I'm wanting to see fruther breakdowns to spot the real trends that these total market share growth charts fail to indicate. So maybe include Intel's, AMD, and Nvidia's quarterly figures in with this chart and maybe get a little better look that where the growth is coming from.

Nvidia's non comsumer GPU sales revenues look like they are going to surpass its consumer GPU sales revenues very soon if not in the next quarter or few business quarters. And AMD's GPU sales figures for non consumer gaming will be going up also helped along by piggybacking on Epyc sales where some Epyc customers need the GPU FP/AI horsepower. Intel's GPU sales are only there because folks get the GPUs integrated along with Intel's CPU cores mostly in a more take it or leave it manner for the consumer integrated graphics market but Raven Ridge will change that for AMD from this point on.

Give it a few more quarters for the market to take in all that is new between AMD's/Intel's EMIB deal and for the AI markets to really begin to take off and the enrire GPU market share charts are going to be turned in strange new directions with Intel and AMD teaming up against Nvidia for some things and competing with each other on others. And AMD is back big time into the server/workstation/HPC market along with that AI market that will be a rising tide that lifts all boats. If Raja going to Intel to work on a GV100 competitor for Intel was not enough it's that EMIB Intel/AMD mash-up on That MCM that is also going to make that total market share graph go crazy from this poit on for a good little while before things stabilize.

More Graph Market breakdowns are needed or the trends are not going to be noticed before they produce unnoticed results.

November 20, 2017 | 09:02 PM - Posted by DifferentBreakDownDrPeddieSVP (not verified)

Edit: produce unnoticed results.
to: produce noticeable results.

November 21, 2017 | 02:23 PM - Posted by Jeremy Hellstrom

I take it you are unfamiliar with JPR and what they do.

November 21, 2017 | 05:11 PM - Posted by OneDoesKnowAboutJPRandOthersHooks (not verified)

I know what they do and they show one big graph and charge for the remainder of the information breakdowns. So maybe some sponsorship on someone's part. And I'll look for more than one spin for hire type of JPR/Other company doing the same market/mind share for a fee business that does not provide any logical market breakdowns further than one big overall graph. Those SEC quarterly reports come in handy for publicly traded companies and put them along side these big graphs and some more information can be had.

But it's just like those Epyc review samples over at Phoronix when the reviewer was asked to directly compare Epyc CPU SKUs to Threadripper SKUs and the reviewer stated that he was not allowed to do any direct comparsions.

Online Reporting and the Truth are two entirely different things in the current unregulated reality of the Internet. So more thorough reporting is required in the "Reporting" busiiness that is really not in the reporting business at all but in that selling of mind share business that most of the Internet "Reporting" busines is actually concerned with.

November 21, 2017 | 07:28 PM - Posted by Jeremy Hellstrom

No it's not sponsorship; it's called a business.  They are the benchmark for market research in this field, which is why they have been doing what they do sucessfully for three decades. 

It is not at all like what we do here currently nor how Phoronix operates.  It is unclear how any of this relates, let alone what you mean by spin, Truth or "Reporting".

November 21, 2017 | 10:33 PM - Posted by SoLongAndNoThanksForTheSuperFish (not verified)

It's not about PCper its about the whole of the internet based reporting sphere and it's conflict on interests that result in restrictions that leads to obfuscation of the truth. Comparsions that are not allowed between CPUs or GPUs due to review sample terms and conditions or Free samples or privileges will be withdrawn. Ad revenuse obtained directly from the very same companies from internet review sites when review sites are also supposed to be objectively reviewing the very same companies' products. JPR is only one of many benchmarks for market research and folks need to be informed via other sources presented by any reporter to get at more of the truth other than just quoting a single source, critical thinking is dead online for the most part.

Strings are attatched to review samples and ad revenues depend on reviewers not being as up front with relevant informarion for fear of offending ad partners. There are lies of omission where incomplete testing results are used and products rated in a non objective manner because of the lack of objectivity in the Online "Press" due to ad/review sample conflicts of interests. Hell most of the online press fails to issue transparency statements but some do. The good rule of thumb for the internet reporting sphere that lacks and proper peer review oversight is to not trust any single website at all but instead read many sources.

The internet being so unregulated for truth in reviews and advertising compared to the over the air industry has made truth a rare commodity online. The proper levels of trust for readers is to not trust at all any content that appears to lack a full set of results and breakdowns of information, JPRs or anyone elses results without proper qualification.

And the Open Internet may just be in its death throes on the way to becoming more like the cable industry's old cable service with IP packets all managed via a pay to recieve formula where the internet servce providor gets a cut of the action or the IP Packets may not get there in a timely manner. So cuttimg the cable companies cable has just lead to the cable company becoming/already being the internet providor and that cable right back in the form of IP packet priority for a cut of the action to the ISP/Cable monopoly.

The unobstructed Internet was a good while it lasted and all packets were the same but that's going away and so is many online reporters sources of reporting employment as those IP packets are going to be encoutering some IP switch bridge trolls along the way that will control the bridge passage of those IP packats and if fees are not paid then packets will have to take the log way round. I'm not looking to be using my ISP next summer and it looks like I'll be switching to an ISP that's not also a content producer or providor. Or maybe I'll just get offline for a good while if the content that I watch becomes too expensive like cable. Because the internet without packet neutrality is the same thing as the old cable that was cut out by many when the Internet was more free than it's going to become after December 17 2017.
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It's just too bad a Vogon Constructor Fleet could not show up on December 17 2017, right before the vote, and end all this Earth madness to make way for a Hyperspatial HyperNet bypass.

Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz: There’s no point in acting surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for 50 of your Earth years, so you’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now.

Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz: What do you mean you’ve never been to Alpha Centauri? Oh, for heaven’s sake, mankind, it’s only four light years away, you know. I’m sorry, but if you can’t be bothered to take an interest in local affairs, that’s your own lookout. Energize the demolition beams.

Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz: I don't know, apathetic bloody planet, I've no sympathy at all.

November 21, 2017 | 09:12 AM - Posted by msroadkill612

I hear you, but it seems odd to waste half the die on an igp and then not use it.

devils advocate - the blue line represent the proportion of the market who dont give a rats about gaming, unlike the opposite impression we get from those vocal chappies.

They really seem the last men standing who care about ipc, and games are about the only code bad enough to care much also.

November 21, 2017 | 07:31 PM - Posted by Jeremy Hellstrom

Not an inaccurate summation; as this is total PC market you are seeing Intel's huge advantage in business machines.  It is not easy to justify a Vega or GTX to the bean counters, let alone convince the head bean counters to consider AMD powered machines as a standard.

November 21, 2017 | 01:59 AM - Posted by Photonboy

I don't think Intel's "waltz" cadence had much effect on the market.

Much of their plans reflect consumer buying patterns not the other way around.

For example, I have an i7-3770K (OC 4.4GHz) system that is now FIVE YEARS OLD, but see little reason to replace my CPU and may end up with that system for TEN YEARS in total.

(though I spent a lot of money on my GTX1080, SSD's etc)

In fact, my old system was donated to my sister. It has an i7-860 (4C/8T) which is more than adequate for her basic needs.

Heck, my dad's eight-year-old laptop has a 2-core Intel CPU that serves him well still (with upgrade to 4GB system, then W8.1 for $40 then free W10 update).

So my family hasn't bought an intel CPU in five years and won't until a PC dies (and even then it may be an AMD CPU now).

November 21, 2017 | 02:22 PM - Posted by Jeremy Hellstrom

So bang on that downward trend starting in 2012?  :)

Intel's cadence is certainly not the only reason, but it is one of many factors that have been changing the market.

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