Lovely, NVIDIA is betting on BitCoin again

Subject: General Tech | July 27, 2018 - 12:54 PM |
Tagged: nvidia, rumour, gtx 1180, turing

Hopefully this rumour is wrong as the price of the current high end cards from NVIDIA have finally stabilized at prices bearing some slight resemblance to their original MSRP.  If it is true, the next generation of GPUs from NVIDIA will be priced based on their assumption that cryptomining will be coming back in vogue and people will be willing to pay a higher price for the new cards.  We are still expecting to see these Turing cards arrive at the end of August, built on TSMC's 12nm process and introducing a new connector for VR headsets, which requires only a single cord.  

The Inquirer doesn't have any guesses on what the prices may be, they do have links to the source of the rumours though.

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"Digitimes has some additional info, though, and claims to have heard from 'industry sources' that the incoming Turing-based GPUs will be "priced higher" than Nvidia's current GTX 1080/1070 graphics cards."

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July 27, 2018 | 01:19 PM - Posted by Rocky123 (not verified)

Of coarse Nvidia and AMD as well will want to find ways to inflate prices they got a taste of making more money the last time crypto mining guys and companies bought up every card around. They want to make the higher prices a permanent thing because their share holders don't care if we pay through the nose they just like their bigger bank balances which is human nature.

July 28, 2018 | 08:05 PM - Posted by Branthog

I'm all for it. Chase the miners and come crawling back to gamers when they've moved on. Nobody is going to spend 75% of their PC budget on a card. That's absurd.

July 29, 2018 | 08:27 PM - Posted by Anonymooses (not verified)

Yea I agree, especially when 75% of my pc budget is already dedicated to absurdly priced ram. :P

July 27, 2018 | 01:42 PM - Posted by cracklingice (not verified)

Of course they'll cost more. They always cost more. If they're not raising the price, they're changing what tier you get at that price. Personally, I'd tape out what I had planned for 7nm 1270 and 1280 on 12nm and sell them for 1199 and 1399 with no other cards in the 11 series. Then in a year when 7nm was better yields, I'd shrink it and fill up the entire line of 12 series with prices about $500 cheaper.

July 28, 2018 | 08:03 PM - Posted by Branthog

You'd increase the price of the top end cards by 100%? Brilliant.

This is a great way to kill an industry. Or let a third party slip in.

July 27, 2018 | 01:51 PM - Posted by cracklingice (not verified)

Also, these people are crazy if they think mining will pick back up. The amount of cash that would have to be injected into buying and holding cryptocurrency that would be required to make cards fly off the shelf again is mind boggling. Even if everything went up 200% (approx 300 billion usd) that still wouldn't be enough to get me interested in buying another card just for mining. As it is all my profits from my current card are pretty much eaten up by the air conditioner having to work harder. And I have cheap power.

July 27, 2018 | 09:51 PM - Posted by Anonymousnameisalreadyused (not verified)

(Salt required if you keep reading below...)

July 27, 2018 | 10:03 PM - Posted by Anonymousnameisalreadyused (not verified)

(Salt required if you keep reading below...)

July 28, 2018 | 08:01 PM - Posted by Branthog

LUL. THe top of the line card was $500 not too long ago. Now it's nearly $900. Now they're looking to crank us up to $1,000 or more? Screw that and screw them. Make god damn GPUs for GPU use. Make other shit for miners and sell it to them separately.

This is a good way to just make your users choose to *all* stay a generation behind. We'll just buy the cards second hand when the miners move on the next year. You won't be selling more cards at all. You'll just be selling them to a different customer base.

July 29, 2018 | 06:45 PM - Posted by Jeremy Hellstrom

I knew I wasn't the only one that remembered that!

July 31, 2018 | 04:45 PM - Posted by WaitingForBZ (not verified)

But GPU tapeouts cost hundreds of millions of dollars and that's no small amount for AMD currently. It's better for AMD to target the compute/AI oriented Professional markets and less so the flagship GPU gaming market as Nvidia is using its Profesional GP102 base die for the GTX 1080Ti.

More of the GPU market revolves around the mainstream GTX 1080/1070 and Vega 56/64 market with AMD wanting its low end GPU maket taken over more by Raven Ridge APU based systems. AMD made more money this time around from miners owing to the excess shaders on Vega 64 and 56 that all came from that one Vega 10 base die Tapeout that had 4096 shaders tops and that AMD was also using to target the professionl Compute/AI markets with rather than only just gaming.

AMD's Epyc sales are beginning to take off and before long AMD's Epyc sales will represent the majority of AMD's revenues with consumer gaming revenues growing ever smaller relative to the rapidly growing Epyc/Professional GPU compute/AI revenues.

AMD should make GPUs for Compute/AI usage to pair with their Epyc server/HPC CPU offerings for customers that need FP/AI grunt. Any Flagship Gaming GPUs should come from binned Pro SKUs that have Dies that do not make the binning grade to for Pro usage. This will give AMD better gross margins than trying to beat Nvidia's flagship GPU offerings that really do not represent the majority of Nvidia's revenues for gaming either.

AMD can well afford to not have as much consumer flagship gaming busines while Vega 56/64 will do fine for mainstream gaming. More Vega graphics representation in the market will come Via Zen/Integrated-Vega Raven Ridge anyways while Vega 56/64 are more than enough for mainstream once the prices start to dip below MSRP for AMD's Vega offerings.

At some future time there will be a sufficient number of Binned vega 20 dies that can not be used for the professional SKUs and AMD can work up a Vega 20 baesd single or dual die on a PCIe card Flagship SKU to sell off those binned Vega 20 Dies that will never make in into any Radeon Pro WX/Instinct SKUs. 7nm GPU Tapeouts are a bit more costly than 14nm GPU tapeouts and yield issues have to be considered also.

AMD will wait for enough Vega 20 reject Dies to begin appearing and also introduce Navi mainstream offerings in a monolithic die form and not modular die format. Only professional Navi will probably be getting some limited modular die treatment at first becaues the R&D expense for that can be better paid by professional markups with modular Navi SKUs comeing to the consumre market after the professional market amortizes fully the heafty R&D costs for any modular Navi/later GPU designs.

This is how Nvidia pays for its GP102/GP100 development costs and ditto for Intel and the majority of their CPU development costs. With AMD back in the Server/HPC CPU market game and Professional GPU compute/AI game(Vega 10 and 20) and the funds to pay all for all that leading edge tech can come via professional makrets for AMD as well.

It looks like for consumer gaming the costs will never go as low as before what with JHH over at Nvidia the one that started the GPU for compute/AI market that even benefits AMD, and Intel(Later on) also! Consumers will get more low end Gaming from AMD via their Zen/Vega APUs while Navi will come to mainstream gaming at first with the possibility of some Vega 20 reject die based Flagship gaming GPU single or dual die on one PCIe card variant so AMD can recoupe some revenues that way. That's not the first time that AMD has created a dual GPU on one PCIe card Flagship GPU variant and who knows what AMD can do once it's no longer revenue constrained after Epyc takes back an even larger server/HPC market share than Opteron ever could hope to.

Nvidia's newest will cost even more because Nvidia will take a writeoff bath if it can not clear that excess Pascal inventory. Look for Nvidia to for a short while try and focus on maybe more dual Pascal cards gaming or other perks to clear that Pascal stock. Nvidia's FE SKUs will be costly even more so this time around for any bleeding edge gamers with the deepest pockets and the greatest ePEEN issues. AMD sees no economic reaseons to take on Nvidia in the Flagship GPU maket each and every year and that's a smart move by Lisa Su to target the professional GPU compute/AI market and only the mainstream GPU gaming market. AMD's is looking to increase its gross margins into the 40%-44%+ range ASAP.

Look for AMD's GPU/Graphics market share to grow more via Raven Ridge APUs than discrete Vega numbers as Intel's Intergated graphics numbers have shown for some years now. I can't wait to see what the Raven Ridge APUs will have at 7nm once that is the standard process node for AMD.

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