Some Hints as to What Comes Next
On March 14 at the Capsaicin event at GDC AMD disclosed their roadmap for GPU architectures through 2018. There were two new names in attendance as well as some hints at what technology will be implemented in these products. It was only one slide, but some interesting information can be inferred from what we have seen and what was said in the event and afterwards during interviews.
Polaris the the next generation of GCN products from AMD that have been shown off for the past few months. Previously in December and at CES we saw the Polaris 11 GPU on display. Very little is known about this product except that it is small and extremely power efficient. Last night we saw the Polaris 10 being run and we only know that it is competitive with current mainstream performance and is larger than the Polaris 11. These products are purportedly based on Samsung/GLOBALFOUNDRIES 14nm LPP.
The source of near endless speculation online.
In the slide AMD showed it listed Polaris as having 2.5X the performance per watt over the previous 28 nm products in AMD’s lineup. This is impressive, but not terribly surprising. AMD and NVIDIA both skipped the 20 nm planar node because it just did not offer up the type of performance and scaling to make sense economically. Simply put, the expense was not worth the results in terms of die size improvements and more importantly power scaling. 20 nm planar just could not offer the type of performance overall that GPU manufacturers could achieve with 2nd and 3rd generation 28nm processes.
What was missing from the slide is mention that Polaris will integrate either HMB1 or HBM2. Vega, the architecture after Polaris, does in fact list HBM2 as the memory technology it will be packaged with. It promises another tick up in terms of performance per watt, but that is going to come more from aggressive design optimizations and likely improvements on FinFET process technologies. Vega will be a 2017 product.
Beyond that we see Navi. It again boasts an improvement in perf per watt as well as the inclusion of a new memory technology behind HBM. Current conjecture is that this could be HMC (hybrid memory cube). I am not entirely certain of that particular conjecture as it does not necessarily improve upon the advantages of current generation HBM and upcoming HBM2 implementations. Navi will not show up until 2018 at the earliest. This *could* be a 10 nm part, but considering the struggle that the industry has had getting to 14/16nm FinFET I am not holding my breath.
AMD provided few details about these products other than what we see here. From here on out is conjecture based upon industry trends, analysis of known roadmaps, and the limitations of the process and memory technologies that are already well known.