Subject: Storage | December 18, 2011 - 11:20 AM | Ryan Shrout
Tagged: WD, thailand, ssd, Seagate, hdd, Hard Drive, flooding
The hard drive industry might be recovering more quickly than expected and the entire tech field should be hoping that is the case. We have been covering the unfortunate disaster in Thailand and the accompanying disruption in the world of storage since things first started hitting the fan in October. The initial result was a very dramatic price increase on traditional spinning disks - prices going up as much as 200% in some cases. This week we got our hands on some very interesting data from Dynamite Data, a company focused on channel monitoring, that they were willing to let us share with you.
First, the bad news that we already know about - the price increases we have seen percolate throughout the entire industry in the last two months.
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This graph shows the average price of the top 50 spinning disk drives over the last year in red and the very specific Western Digital Velociraptor 150GB pricing on Amazon.com in blue. You can see that around October 16th the big price increase began and over the entire ecommerce span that Dynamite Data monitors, prices on the top 50 HDDs went up by 42%. And while not shown in the graph, other provided data shows that at its peak the low-cost leaders in the HDD market increased their prices by 150% as of early December.
Why did this happen? Looking at inventory levels clearly shows the drop in availability.
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Based on those same top 50 SKUs, we saw ecommerce inventory drop by 90% in late October (in less than one week!) after the first impact on the supply chain that occurred on October 8th. What is interesting is that it took a week or more for the price changes to take place based on the analysis of the disaster in Thailand. Much to the dismay of many of the conspiracy theorists out there though this data definitely backs up the price increases from WD, Seagate and others.
There is an uplifting bit of news in both of the above the graphs though - look towards the end of the time lines of gathered data. Both show movement in the direction of consumer's interests: a jump in inventory and a drop in average pricing. WD announced on November 30th that the first of its production facilities was back online and we are already seeing results. Of course the CEO of Seagate is still claiming that it will take more than a year for the industry to recover but it looks like supply may increase at a quicker rate than initially expected.
Finally, just for a bit of added bonus coverage, many have wondered if the price increase on traditional spinning drives would affect the pricing of SSDs. Well, it looks like did at least for a 10 day span.
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Over the last year prices for solid state drives have dropped by 23% on the top 50 devices available with one minor hiccup. In a 10 day period between the end of October and early November, there was an SSD price increase that isn't explainable by any kind of inventory changes or supply line changes. This was likely due to the HDD shortage and vendors looking to maximize profits when consumers didn't have access to the low cost hard drives they were used to. But because the price increase lasted such a short time I think we can clearly see that customers didn't fall for the ploy and the hiccup was quickly self-corrected.
Even though we have been monitoring prices on our own since the Thailand disaster first occurred, it is great to get some hard data to put alongside our presumptions. While there is tons of bad news still to digest for at least the first two quarters of 2012, the information provided by Dynamite Data provides some hope that the worst is behind us. If you are interested in more analysis of this data and you will be at CES in January, you should stop by the Storage Visions conference where there will be a short talk on the topic.
Back in 2006, storage tech talk was intermittently buzzy with a few different innovations. One was wrapped around the pending release of Windows Vista, particularly two bullets on its feature list: ReadyBoost and ReadyDrive. In parallel with all of the Ready_____ talk, many tech pundits asked why it would be necessary to have the flash talk to Windows through special drivers. Why couldn't the flash memory just act like a larger RAM cache already present on?
A prototype ReadyBoost-enabled HDD by Samsung.
The answer, which nobody was aware of at that time, was that management of flash memory was a tricky thing to do successfully. It would not be until several years later that SSD's would (mostly) beat the issues of Long Term Performance and other issues that crop up when attempting to store randomly written data onto a device that can only be erased in relatively large blocks.
ReadyDrive required a special 'Hybrid' disk drive to be connected to and recognized by Windows Vista, containing both spinning platters and flash memory. Vista would then place frequently used small files on the flash. Since flash memory has negligible access times when compared to seek times of a HDD, the drive overall would boot significantly faster. Other tasks using those cached system files also saw a benefit. While ReadyDrive looked great on paper, there were very few devices ever released that could take advantage of it. Seagate was the earliest to release such a drive, and their Momentus 5400 PSD laptop drive did not see the light of day until Vista was nearly a full year old.
Subject: Storage | November 29, 2011 - 06:19 PM | Jeremy Hellstrom
Tagged: hybrid, momentus XT, hdd, ssd, Seagate, sata 6Gbs
Over the past few years Seagate has been trying to perfect a way to get the best of both storage worlds by combining an SSD as a semi-permanent cache for a large platter based hard drive. The new Seagate Momentus XT is the third generation of this series, a 750GB HDD with a 8GB SLC SSD available to cache frequently used files and are calling it FAST (Flash-Assisted Storage Technology). Legit Reviews investigated their performance claims, after repeatedly using the drive to fill the cache as this drive will perform exactly like the platter based drive it is until that cache has moved frequently accessed or slow to load files into the flash memory. It did seem to reduce boot times and program loading to almost SSD levels, though it does not effect infrequently used programs. It was significantly less expensive than an SSD so if you tend to do similar tasks on your PC every day and need the large storage space this drive might just be for you.
"Overall, we'd certainly recommend the Momentus XT and frankly wouldn't go back to a plain old hard drive unless we were forced to. The expediency of boot and application load times are something that, once you get used to it, you can't seem to live without. Keep in mind that it may take two or three times for the Adaptive Memory Technology to decide that it should be cached and speed things up. On the down side, every operation is not SSD fast, especially if you're performing it for the first time..."
Here are some more Storage reviews from around the web:
- Seagate's Momentus XT 750GB hybrid hard drive @ The Tech Report
- Seagate Momentus XT ST750LX003 Hybrid 750GB Review @ OCC
- Seagate Momentus XT 750GB Hybrid Hard Drive Review @ Hardware Canucks
- Seagate Momentus XT Solid State Hybrid @ Benchmark Reviews
- Seagate Momentus 7200.5 750GB Hard Drive Review @ Legit Reviews
- Western Digital Scorpio Blue 1TB 5400RPM @ Tweaktown
- QNAP TS-879U-RP High Performance SMB NAS @ CoD
- Thecus N8900 8-Bay Rackmount NAS @ Tweaktown
- Synology DiskStation DS712+ NAS Review @ TechwareLabs
- QNAP TurboNAS TS-219P II NAS Server Review @ Real World Labs
- Corsair Performance Pro 256GB SSD Review @ HardwareHeaven
- OCZ Vertex 3 Max IOPS 120GB Review @ HCW
- Silicon Power Diamon D05 USB 3.0 External Drive @ Bjorn3D
- Patriot Pyro SE 6Gbps 240GB SSD Review @ The SSD Review
- Kingston HyperX 3.0 128GB 8-Channel USB Flash Drive Review @ Real World Labs
Subject: General Tech | November 29, 2011 - 12:23 PM | Jeremy Hellstrom
Tagged: Seagate, hdd, earnings
It seems very interesting that Seagate is so upbeat about their earnings with the flooding in Thailand causing huge supply shortages of HDD world wide. Last year at this time they were expecting 170 million units move, whereas this year is is 110-120 million units with demand outstripping supply. That number does reflect some supply issues but perhaps not as bad as the issues faced by Western Digital and other manufacturers with a large presence in Thailand. The profit being higher does show what happens when you have a product people want but cannot find; the price per unit quickly goes up and the business can still make a profit. We can only hope that as supply returns to the chain that the price drops at the same speed it has risen. We still do not have final word on Seagate's absorption of Samsung's HDD business, that will likely be in January.
CUPERTINO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Seagate Technology plc (NASDAQ:STX) today updated its financial outlook for the December 2011 and March 2012 quarters.
The company continues to believe that, due to the industry impacts caused by the extensive flooding in Thailand, hard disk drive supply will be significantly constrained for several quarters. For the December 2011 quarter, the company believes the industry will ship between 110-120 million units.
The company believes the industry’s ability to manufacture and ship hard disks drives will gradually improve throughout calendar 2012. While this may alleviate some of the unit demand shortfall, it is expected that some companies will optimize unit shipments by manufacturing lower component count/lower capacity hard disk drives; thereby, only modestly offsetting the growing petabyte shortage. Because demand is estimated to significantly exceed supply during this time, pricing is expected to remain stable.
The company’s component and disk drive factories in Thailand have not been directly affected by the flood; however, the company’s ability to manufacture hard disk drives has been impacted due to external component supply constraints as first disclosed on October 12, 2011.
For the December 2011 quarter, the company now expects unit shipments of approximately 43 million units and revenue of approximately $2.8 billion. Gross margin as a percent of revenue is expected to be 150-300 basis points above the high-end of the company’s long-term, targeted gross margin range of 22-26%. Operating expenses (R&D and SG&A) are expected to be approximately $400 million. Expenses related to the acquisition of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd’s (“Samsung”) hard disk drive business and any revenue or operating expenses of the acquired business following the closing date cannot be estimated at this time and are therefore excluded from this outlook. The company continues to expect to close the acquisition of Samsung’s hard disk drive business by the end of December 2011.
The company’s outlook for the March 2012 quarter assumes requisite regulatory approvals are received and the Samsung acquisition closes in December of 2011. The company also continues to work with its external suppliers to restore the component supply chain, and now expects that in the March quarter it will be capable of shipping a mix of products in terms of capacity per drive and expected market similar to pre-flood levels. Currently, for the March 2012 quarter, the company expects unit shipments to increase sequentially. Revenue is expected to be at least $3.75 billion and gross margin as a percent of revenue is expected to be at least 300 basis points above the aforementioned targeted range of 22-26%. The outlook for the March 2012 quarter excludes certain costs related to the integration of the acquired Samsung hard disk drive operations which cannot be estimated at this time.
The financial outlook provided today does not include the arbitration award previously disclosed on November 21, 2011.
Subject: Storage | November 19, 2011 - 04:25 PM | Ryan Shrout
Tagged: thailand, Seagate, Hard Drive, flooding
Last month we noticed that hard drive prices were spiking very high and we took a quick look at exactly why this was: most notably, the devastating flooding in Thailand. While at one point you could buy 2TB hard drives for under the $100 mark when on special, those days seem long gone. Our original story quoted the CEO of Western Digital as saying it could take "multiple quarters" for recovery to occur.
Pricing graph from Pricegrabber.com for Western Digital Caviar Black 2TB
According to this quote seen on Bloomberg, Seagate's CEO, Stephen Luczo, says it might be much worse:
The projections by some Wall Street analysts that production will be back to pre-flood levels by summer are nonsense, Luczo says.
“This is going to take a lot longer than people are assuming, until the end of 2012 at least,” he says. “And by then, demand will have gone up.”
Well....crap. Users looking to build new systems or even buy them from third parties will likely see increases in costs because of this. And while not every need can really be addressed by SSDs (I type while looking for room on a system using one to install Skyrim...), the hard drive price increases could drive quicker adoption of solid state media in the near term.
Subject: General Tech, Storage | October 27, 2011 - 04:00 PM | Ryan Shrout
Tagged: wdc, shortage, Seagate, Samsung, hitachi, hdd, Hard Drive
Chances are good you have heard about the recent flooding in Thailand - as Yahoo puts it: "The country's worst flooding in half a century, caused in part by unusually heavy monsoon rain, has killed 373 people since mid-July and disrupted the lives of nearly 2.5 million." Obviously this is a horrific disaster and we feel for the people affected by it.
But there is a tech angle to the story that has been showing up in many of our discussions as late and is the impact this disaster has had on the production of spindle-based hard drives. Looking for a 2TB hard drive today on Newegg.com this is what I found:
Prices for hard drives have sky rocketed in the last week or so due to the pending shortage of them across the world. Many of the top manufacturers have facilities based in Thailand for production as well as partners that are responsible for supplying companies like Western Digital, Seagate, Samsung and Hitachi with the parts they need to produce platter-based drives.
While we used to talk about finding 2TB hard drives in the $89 price range, the best prices we could find on comparable units today start at $129; and this is for the slower units. Western Digital Caviar Black drives are starting at unit prices of $229 now!
Pricing graph from Pricegrabber.com for Western Digital Caviar Black 2TB
If you are careful and shop around, you can still find drives like this for the $149 price point at sellers like Amazon are bit slower to update their prices. (Scratch that, after publication this was already at $199!) But don't just blindly purchase drives at this point - do your research!
WD drives aren't the only ones affected. When doing a search for a Seagate 2TB drive, these were our results:
When asked for comment, a representative of one of the affected manufacturers expressed concern for the people of Thailand first, but when pressed, said:
"The entire hard drive business is affected. Two of our factories are inundated with water, which supports 60% of our output. But a ton of suppliers that the entire industry uses are also flooded so we are all impacted."
While looking over at WD's press center we found this comment from John Coyne, President and CEO:
In mid-October, to protect our employees and our equipment and facilities, we temporarily suspended production at our two factories in Thailand, which have been inundated by floodwater. In addition, many of our component suppliers have been impacted, leaving material for hard drive production considerably constrained. We are working with suppliers to assess the extent of their impact and help devise short- and long-term solutions. This is a complex and dynamic challenge that will require extensive rebuilding for the Thai people and government, and present unprecedented obstacles to the hard drive industry for multiple quarters.
Obviously with a majority of the facilities affected we can only expect these prices hikes to increase and to linger. That fact that Coyne specifically notes "multiple quarters" indicates that users likely won't see a return to the pricing we were used to until at least mid-2012. With competition from solid-state drives heating up, this could be bad timing for companies dependent on spindle drives as the driving revenue source: comparing a $300 SSD to a $90 standard drive is a much different decision than that same $300 SSD and a $240 standard drive of high capacity.
According to this report from Xbit labs, the industry has "two to four weeks" of hard drive inventory available. The author claims that this points to the situation not being so dire, but with the WD's CEO stating the effects will be seen for "multiple quarters", I am guessing we will see a major buy-up of inventory from system builders like HP and Dell that will cause drive shortages much more quickly than anticipated.
PC Perspective will keep tracking the effects on driving pricing and if any player in the business has other input they want to offer us. Stay tuned!
Subject: Storage | September 8, 2011 - 11:01 PM | Tim Verry
Tagged: Seagate, Hard Drive, goflex, 4TB
Seagate has broken the capacity ceiling for single disk hard drives with their new GoFlex external hard drive reaching a beefy 4 TB of storage capacity. No specific details on performance have been released; however, Seagate has stated that the new four terabyte drive will be housed in their new industrial design enclosure and will carry an MSRP of $249.99.
The new enclosure is a glossy black design that the company claims delivers a smaller footprint then their previous models. The front face holds a capacity meter that shows the used capacity in 25% increments. Connectivity options on the rear of the drive include FireWire 800 and USB 2.0. Users are also able to pair the 4TB GoFlex drive with a GoFlex adapter that enables USB 3.0 transfer speeds.
Currently, the 4TB hard drive is available for purchase from Seagate’s website, and will be available for purchase from online retailers within the month. More photos of the drive are available here. Personally, I had been holding off on the terabyte craze until a drive with at least four terabytes came out; however, storage needs required me to jump on a 2TB drive a bit earlier than I expected. Are you using a TB+ hard drive, or are you holding off for a certain capacity before jumping into the terabyte era?
Podcast #151 - HD 6670 and 6570, Seagate and Samsung deal, 20nm Flash memory, Viewer questions and more!
Subject: Editorial, General Tech | April 21, 2011 - 03:08 PM | Ken Addison
Tagged: Seagate, Samsung, podcast, HD6670, HD6570
PC Perspective Podcast #151 - 4/21/2011
This week we talk about AMD's new HD 6670 and 6570, the Seagate and Samsung deal, 20nm Flash memory, Viewer questions and more!
The URL for the podcast is: http://pcper.com/podcast - Share with your friends!
- iTunes - Subscribe to the podcast directly through the iTunes Store
- RSS - Subscribe through your regular RSS reader
- MP3 - Direct download link to the MP3 file
Hosts: Ryan Shrout, Jeremy Hellstrom, Josh Walrath, and Allyn Malventano
This Podcast is brought to you by MSI Computer, and their all new Sandy Bridge Motherboards!
Program length: 1:12:48
- 0:00:35 Introduction
- 1-888-38-PCPER or firstname.lastname@example.org
- http://twitter.com/ryanshrout and http://twitter.com/pcper
- 0:01:15 We have a new site!
- 0:03:00 Win Prizes on said new site
- More everyday for some amount of time
- 0:08:00 AMD Radeon HD 6670 and HD 6570 Graphics Card Review - Turks GPU is sub-$100
- 0:22:20 Just Delivered: MSI GTX560 HAWK Twin Frozr III
- 0:26:30 Seagate and Samsung, the defragmentation of the storage market continues
- 0:35:05 This Podcast is brought to you by MSI Computer, and their all new Sandy Bridge Motherboards!
- 0:36:11 Windows 8 to offer OS-on-a-thumb-drive portability
- 0:38:10 Intel, Micron jointly release 20nm flash memory
- 0:48:00 Intel and Apple Post Huge Quarters
- 0:54:05 Email from Graham about Thunderbolt GPUs
- 0:56:40 Email from Jeff about PC case fans
- 0:59:40 Email from Paul about rusty graphics cards
- 1:03:00 Hardware / Software Pick of the Week
- http://twitter.com/ryanshrout and http://twitter.com/pcper
- 1:12:07 Closing
Subject: General Tech | April 19, 2011 - 11:51 AM | Jeremy Hellstrom
Tagged: Seagate, Samsung, sale, partnership, hdd, 1 billion
While it is not a true merger or sale, it seems that the operations side of Samsung's HDD branch is being pruned off and sold to Seagate for over $1billion of cash and shares. The reports inidicate this will be more of a partnership, with Samsung continuing to develop technologies for HDD and retaining full ownership of its flash based storage assets. Drop by The Tech Report for more.
"Seagate and Samsung have announced a "broad strategic alignment," as part of which Seagate will take over Samsung's hard-drive operations in exchange for a cool $1.375 billion (paid half in cash, half in stock). The deal also involves a NAND flash memory supply agreement as well as "expanded cooperation" on enterprise storage."
Here is some more Tech News from around the web:
- Seagate buying Samsung HDD department rumor unlikely to occur shortly @ DigiTimes
- Cellphone battery mouse modification @ Hack a Day
- Intel will leave McAfee alone, but it can secure our chips @ The Inquirer
- Apple's IOS 4.3.2 gets jailbroken within a week @ The Inquirer
- Office 365 enters public beta @ Ars Technica
- Intel Thunderbolt may impact USB 3.0 @ DigiTimes
- Test Driving The QEMU-KVM KMS Driver @ Phoronix