The PC is still not dead

Subject: General Tech | July 10, 2014 - 02:30 PM |
Tagged: market share, desktop pc

There has been a 2 year slump in PC sales due to a number of reasons, from a lack of attractive system upgrades to the increasing capabilities of mobile devices but according to Gartner this is coming to an end.  While Acer and the smaller brands and no-name systems continue to see sales declines the major players such as Lenovo HP, Dell, and Asus have all seen increases in the amount of systems they have sold in this past quarter.  The Register quotes Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa in their article, "... we expect to see slow, but consistent, PC growth" as emerging markets augment their low cost tablets with purchases of full PCs. 

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"By Gartner's estimates, worldwide PC shipments were essentially flat for the second quarter of 2014, growing just 0.1 per cent when compared to the same period a year ago. But even that is encouraging, the analyst firm points out, because shipments have declined for the last eight consecutive quarters."

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Source: The Register

Traditional PC shipments continue their steep decline

Subject: General Tech | December 5, 2013 - 01:31 PM |
Tagged: sales, pc sales, market share

The PC market has eroded over the past few years to the point where sales are only slightly above what they were in 2008, roughly 300 million sales.  Even more worrisome for vendors is the predicted 10.1% decline predicted for the overall sales in 2013.  DigiTimes cites a lack of reasons to upgrade being a root cause and to an extent that makes sense, a first generation i5 laptop will still compete with a current generation laptop with an equivalent Haswell model.  Another reason is the changing market, with tablets and phones providing good enough connectivity for many who previously would have had to purchase a 'traditional' computer.  Commercial sales are not declining as quickly yet but that could change with the spread of the BYOD disease.

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"Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by 10.1% in 2013, slightly below the previous projection of 9.7%, and by far the most severe yearly contraction on record, according to IDC. Interest in PCs has remained limited, leading to little indication of positive growth beyond replacement of existing systems. Total shipments are expected to decline by an additional 3.8% in 2014 before turning slightly positive in the longer term."

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Source: DigiTimes

Internet Explorer Still Most Popular Web Browser in 2013

Subject: General Tech | March 2, 2013 - 11:58 PM |
Tagged: web browser, market share, internet explorer, chrome

Net Market Share has released statistics on the state of browser market share as of last month (February 2013). The numbers indicate that Internet Explorer is still the dominant browser on the desktop, with Firefox and Chrome coming in second and third place respecitvely. Interesting, the situation is reversed on the mobile front, with Internet Explorer being greatly surpased by Apple’s Safari in the top spot.

On the desktop browser front, Internet Explorer experienced year over year growth to 55.52% in February 2013. Firefox market share remained fairly stable YoY, ending up with 20.12%. Further, Chrome saw a slight YoY decline to 16.27%. Additionally, Safari and Opera sustained 5.42% and 1.82% market share in February 2013. Both browsers’ slice of the market remained fairly stable throughout the year. It will be interesting to see if Opera’s switch to WebKit will net the browser additional market share (RIP Presto).

 

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Ars Technica further compiled charts on the specific browser versions used. While the majority of IE users are running version 8 and 9 (with IE 6 sadly being the thrid most popular version), Chrome and Firefox users are spread out fairly evenly between the different versions. That may have more to do with Chrome and Firefox’s accelerated versioning/updating though.

For mobile, Apple’s Safari browser leads the pack with 55.41% as of February 2013, which is surprisingly a YoY decline. Meanwhile, the stock Android web browser gained ground throughout the year, ending up with a market share of 22.85%. Opera Mini came in third place with 12.72% market share. Other interesting numbers include Chrome with 1.96%, Internet Explorer (mobile) with 1.58%, and BlackBerry with 0.96%. Further, Symbian has 1.37% market share, which puts it above BlackBerry and just under Internet Explorer. Not bad for a dying mobile OS!

 

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I was fairly surprised by the Internet Explorer numbers, but when taking into account work machines and Windows’ dominance (and users that generally use the default browser--power users excluded of course) I suppose it makes sense. I do wish that the IE6 numbers would fall a bit more though, even it if it just users moving to a newer version of IE.

You can find the full Net Market Share report here. What browser(s) do you use on a daily basis?

Source: Ars Technica

A graphical description of market woes from Jon Peddie

Subject: General Tech, Graphics Cards | February 25, 2013 - 01:32 PM |
Tagged: jon peddie, graphics, market share

If last weeks report from Jon Peddie Research on sales for all add in and integrated graphics had you worried, the news this week is not gong to help boost your confidence.  This week the report focuses solely on add in boards and the drop is dramatic; Q4 2012 sales plummeted just short of 20% compared to Q3 2012.  When you look at the entire year, sales dropped 10% overall as AMD's APUs are making serious inroads into the mobile market, as are Intel's, with many notebooks being sold without a discrete GPU.  The losses are coming from the mainstream market, enthusiast level GPUs actually saw a slight increase in sales but the small volume is utterly drowned by the mainstream market.  You can check out the full press release here.

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"JPR found that AIB shipments during Q4 2012 behaved according to past years with regard to seasonality, but the drop was considerably more dramatic. AIB shipments decreased 17.3% from the last quarter (the 10 year average is just -0.68%). On a year-to-year comparison, shipments were down 10%."

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Jon Peddie has good news for NVIDIA in Q3 2012

Subject: Chipsets | November 26, 2012 - 01:06 PM |
Tagged: jon peddie, Q3 2012, graphics, market share

Jon Peddie Research have released their findings for the graphics market in Q3 of 2012, with bad news for the market, though not so bad for NVIDIA.  The downward trend in PC sales has had an effect on the overall graphics market, with the number of units sold dropping 5.2% from this time last year and only NVIDIA seeing a rise in the number of units sold.  AMD saw a drop of 10.7% in the number of units they shipped, specifically a 30% drop from last quarter in desktop APUs and just under 5% in mobile processors.  Intel's overall sales dropped 8%, with both segments falling roughly equally but NVIDIA's strictly discrete GPU business saw a 28.3% gain in desktop market share and 12% for notebooks when compared to last quarter.

Worth noting is what JPR includes in this research above and beyond what we used to think of as the graphics market.  Any x86 based processor with a GPU is included, tablets to desktops as are IGPs and discrete cards; ARM based devices, cell phones and all server chips are excluded.

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"The news was terrific for Nvidia and disappointing for everyone the other major players. From Q2 to Q3 Intel slipped in both desktop (7%) and notebook (8.6%). AMD dropped (2%) in the desktop, and (17%) in notebooks. Nvidia gained 28.3% in desktop from quarter to quarter and jumped almost 12% in the notebook segment.

This was a not a very good quarter the shipments were down -1.45% on a Qtr-Qtr basis, and -10.8% on a Yr-Yr basis. We found that graphics shipments during Q3'12 slipped from last quarter -1.5% as compared to PCs which grew slightly by 0.9% overall (however more GPU's shipped than PCs due to double attach). GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped and most of the PC vendors are guiding down for Q4."

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GPU sales look a little down in the month

Subject: General Tech | February 27, 2012 - 12:24 PM |
Tagged: jon peddie, gpu, market share

The graphics market seems to be changing, a feeling backed up by Jon Peddie's latest report on the GPU market.  IGPs are dying, low end discrete is dying, and the quickest selling GPUs are integrated onto the CPU.  All this means that the sales of discreet GPUs are down, with a 10.4% drop from the previous quarter as customers opt out of a GPU and simply use the one found on their CPU.  AMD is slowly gaining in this market thanks to the fact that Llano is now available for those who would purchase it.  One oddity that SemiAccurate notes is that NVIDIA actually still claims a share of the IGP market thanks to some sales in China.

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"Word has just come in from everyone’s favorite market research group, Jon Peddie Research, that Q4 2011 was not a particularly inspiring quarter for graphics shipments. Q4 was seasonally down compared to Q3, in step with the prior years, and up slightly compared to 2010. The seasonal drop this year was particularly heavy coming in at 10.4 percent, the largest Q3 to Q4 drop since 2008."

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Source: SemiAccurate

More industry fallout from the flooding in Thailand

Subject: General Tech | November 9, 2011 - 12:43 PM |
Tagged: asus, gigabyte, ECS, asrock, msi, market share

With HDD shortages come a reduced demand for most PC components as shipping a system without a hard drive tends to be frowned upon.  This will be hitting motherboard makers fairly hard over the last quarter of 2011.  DigiTimes reports an estimated 20% drop for Gigabyte; MSI, ECS and ASRock are expecting around a 10% decrease and ASUS projects somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5-10%.  We can certainly hope that there will be discounts offered in the attempt to focus on upgraders.  A nice price on some of the new motherboards that have just come onto the market might draw the attention of those who already have a fully functional PC but are considering a possible hardware refresh.

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"Motherboard makers have been impacted by HDD shortages arising from flooding in Thailand since mid-October, and are expected to see their fourth-quarter shipments decrease 10-15% on quarter, according to industry sources.

Gigabyte Technology may see shipments falling 20-25% from five million in the third quarter to below four million in the fourth."

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Source: DigiTimes

Ultrabooks taking 1/4 of the mobile market? That's a lot of kool-aid to swallow

Subject: General Tech | October 28, 2011 - 01:39 PM |
Tagged: ultrabook, Intel, market share

Everyone's current favourite kicking horse, the ultrabook, is poised to take over almost half of all consumer notebook sales by the end of 2012 ... at least according to what DigiTimes heard from Intel.  Even stranger is that instead of breaking out into laughter, the manufactures peg the likely market penetration at about 25%.   Currently there are models from Acer and ASUS which you can purchase for your very own, but don't go out looking for reviews of them.  You can find some quick previews and overviews but as far as performance testing you are not going to find the same information as is available for every other mobile form factor; take that as you will.

The Ultrabook is expensive, as SemiAccurate recently pointed out you can get better performance from a notebook half the price and almost the same size.  It also seems odd that a form factor specifically limited to only 50,000 units produced in the first run is going to take over the market.  Even with broader adoption from companies like Lenovo or Dell, the math does not seem to support a 25% share of the market, let alone 40% and requires you to completely ignore the willingness of the consumer to pay $1000+ for a mediocre laptop.  It is small and shiny though; never underestimate the draw of shinies!

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"While Intel aims to increase the proportion of ultrabooks among global shipments of consumer notebooks to 40% by fourth-quarter 2012, the proportion is estimated to only reach 20-25% based on current market conditions, according to sources from Taiwan-based notebook supply chain makers.

The sources pointed out that most suppliers are aggressively developing components for ultrabooks, but actual order volumes have so far been below their expectations. Although the suppliers all understand that ultrabook are still testing the water, weakening growth of the traditional notebook market and dropping profits have prompted them to put great hopes on the success of ultrabooks.

As for Intel's 40% goal, the sources pointed out that Apple's MacBook Air will become a strong threshold for ultrabooks since there is not yet a single product can outmatch the MacBook Air in terms of performance and price."

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Source: DigiTimes

Jon Peddie defines 2011 as anomalous for the GPU market

Subject: General Tech, Graphics Cards | August 4, 2011 - 02:14 PM |
Tagged: peddie, market share, gpu

TIBURON, CA-August 4, 2011—Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced estimated graphics chip shipments and suppliers’ market share for Q2’11.

Shipments during the second quarter of 2011 did not behave according to past years with regard to seasonality, and was higher on a year-to-year comparison for the quarter. 2011 is shaping up to be an anomalous year as businesses take their own path to recovery.

Normally, the second quarter of the year is a slower business quarter in the graphics industry (and in the PC industry as a whole). This year, Q2’11 did not conform to the normal seasonal cycle. Instead, sales were up significantly compared to previous years. The growth in Q2 comes as a welcome change, if not a bit worrying—is it inventory building for back to school and the holiday season, or channel stuffing?

Our forecast for the coming years has been modified since the last report, and is less aggressive on both desktops and notebooks—tablets have changed the nature of the PC market. Our findings include Desktops, Notebooks (and Netbooks), and PC-based commercial (i.e., POS) and industrial/scientific and embedded; and do not include handhelds (i.e., mobile phones), x86 Servers or ARM-based Tablets (i.e. iPad and Android-based Tablets), Smartbooks, or Servers.

The quarter in general

  • In Q2’11, Intel celebrated its sixth quarter of Embedded Processor Graphics CPU (EPG, a multi-chip design that combined a graphics processor and CPU in the same package) shipments, and enjoyed a 21% average growth in Desktops and Notebooks.
  • AMD and Nvidia lost in overall market share, while Intel grew compared to last quarter.
  • Year to year this quarter Intel had tremendous market share growth (14.7%), AMD had a loss of 14.2%, and Nvidia slipped 18.4% in the overall market partially due to the company withdrawing from the integrated segments.
  • The Q2’11 change in total shipments from last quarter increased 6.3%, significantly above the ten-year average of 3.5%, and raising concerns about an inventory buildup.
  • Netbooks contributed to notebook growth a bit,however, iPads and Android tablets have probably cannibalized some netbook sales.
    • Over 84 million PCs shipped worldwide in Q2’11, an increase of 2.4% compared to Q1’11, (based on an average of reports from Dataquest, IDC, and HSI) causing speculation that the 6.3% up-swing in graphics could be an inventory buildup and have a negative impact on Q3 or Q4.
    • AMD’s HPU quarter-to-quarter growth has been extraordinary at an average of 80% for desktop and notebook, and Intel’s EPG growth was significant at an average of 41%. This is a clear showing of the industry’s affirmation of the value of CPUs with embedded graphics and is in line with our forecasts. The major, and logical, impact is on older IGPs, and some on low-end add-in boards (AIBS).

Graphics chips (GPUs) and chips with graphics (IGPs, HPUs, and EPGs) are a leading indicator for the PC market. At least one and often two GPUs are present in every PC shipped. It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in the chipset, or embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 115% in 2001 to almost 160% GPUs per PC.

Since the crash of 2009, combined with the introduction and influence of ARM-based Tablets, the PC market has deviated from historical trends. Until the segment for Tablets is clearly defined the fluctuations in the market data is likely to continue. The disruptions probably won’t settle down for a while as Tablets find their place in the market and agreement can be reached on to include them in the PC market analysis, or to not include them.

Market shares shifted for the big three, and put pressure on the smaller three, and they showed a decrease in shipments as indicated in Table 1 (units are in millions.)

Intel continues to be the overall market share leader in Q2’11, elevated by Core i5 EPG CPUs, Sandy Bridge, and Pineview Atom sales for Netbooks. AMD gained market share quarter-to quarter and Nvidia lost share. Nvidia is exiting the integrated graphics segments and shifting focus to discrete GPUs. The company showed significant discrete market share gain (30% qtr-qtr) due to they say strong connect with new Intel Sandybridge notebooks. Ironically Nvidia enjoyed some serendipitous sales of IGPs in Q2. AMD share dropped 7.3 points.

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Intel's SATA controller problems didn't hurt their market share

Subject: General Tech | June 30, 2011 - 11:49 AM |
Tagged: Intel, market share

No matter that AMD claimed to be "Ready, Willing and Stable" when the Cougar Point SATA problem was discovered, the market share numbers show that they were not.  Intel's market share grew in the first quarter by 1.6% from last quarter and a 25% increase in revenue when compared to the first quarter of 2010.  That is a bit of a surprise to many tech enthusiasts who expected a drop in market share for Intel or at the most a stable quarter.  It would seem likely that laptop sales, which for the most point avoided the bad SATA ports, helped as well as the various motherboard vendors quick assurance to customers that any and all bad boards would be replaced.  The Inquirer broke the news here.

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You sure about that?

"CHIPMAKER Intel came out of its Sandy Bridge chipset recall smelling like a rose, managing to increase its share of the chip market in the first quarter of 2011.

Following the launch of Intel's Sandy Bridge architecture at CES in January, the firm was left to announce the embarrassing recall of eight million or so Cougar Point chipsets after a bug was found in its SATA controller. At the time The INQUIRER said that Intel handled the recall well by taking a proactive approach, something that Isuppli's figures confirm."

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Source: The Inquirer